Reply #12: I don't believe it would

[Adelante]

The only way of speculating with any basis are people's expressed second choices. In the polling I've seen, both Edwards and Obama votes move 2:1 to Clinton over each other. This means in the real world the anti-Hillary constituency so fervently believed in online doesn't half exist. There's no way of knowing that an Edwards VP brings those voters with him to Obama. It could be voters with that second preference just might not like the ticket for one reason or another and go to Clinton anyway.

Adding this from new Iowa poll:

Iowa Caucus: Clinton 29% Edwards 25% Obama 24%

Among those voters who say they might change their mind, there is no clear benefit to any of the top three candidates. Obama supporters who might change their mind are fairly evenly divided on their second choice between Edwards and Clinton. Edwards supporters who might change their mind are similarly divided between Obama and Clinton. And the same pattern holds true for Clinton supporters who might change their mind—they are primarily split between Edwards and Obama. Given the high numbers of voters who say they could change their mind, the race in Iowa remains very fluid.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus