At this time in 2003, the frontrunner for the Dem nomination was Howard Dean.

[rinsd]

In a CBS News poll taken 11/10-11/13, he garnered 14% to lead his next rival Gephardt at 12%. Other + Don't Know = 38%.

In a FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics polls taken 11/18-11/19, he garnered 18% to his closest competitor Wes Clark at 14%. Other/Someone else + Won't vote/Don't Know = 31%.

In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll taken 11/14-11/15, Dean was tied with Wes Clark @ 17%(less than 1 week earlier he had a 2 pt lead on Lieberman). Other/don't know/no opinion stood at 13%.

In a Time/CNN poll taken 11/18-11/19, Dean garnered 14% to Wes Clark's 12%. Not sure + Other = 32%

In a Newsweek poll taken 11/6-11/7, Dean garnered 16% to Wes Clark's 15%. Not Sure/Other/None = 26%.

In a NBC News/WSJ poll taken 11/8-11/10, Dean was losing to Wes Clark (17% to 15%) with Not Sure/Other/None = 19%

In a Pew Poll taken 11/18-12/1, Dean was tied with Wes Clark at 15% with 24% don't know/other.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Thru December his lead would "swell" at most 5 more points.

The 2004 election had no stars. It was a cast that needed to be introduced to the public. Which is why the leads were never great and the undecided numbers were so high.

That is not the case this year. Things can certainly change but 2008 is not 2004.