Reply #2: Some interesting points on the Democrats.

[reality based]

I don't think I agree with the article that Ghooliani is benefiting from being not as liberal as expected. I think his standing is due to his well known authoritarian image and 9-11 aura. A lot of Repubs are suckers for that. Southern Republicans are probably perfectly happy with his past run-ins with blacks while he was mayor. He hasn't been able to seal the deal because a)he's been a 9-11 Johnny one note, b) he does have those social liberal drawbacks, and c) even Repubs are uneasy with anyone who supports the Iraq war so strongly.

By trumpeting Hillary's negatives so early and often and then acting surprised when she seems both human and competent, the media has probably contributed to her maintaining dominance at this stage. But she has been the leading candidate since 2004. (I don't view the laugh as humanizing her, incidentally. It seemed to be aimed at aggressively deriding the question and was very effective against Wallace especially. It was an "I paid for this mike" power moment rather than an amiable "There you go again." She shouldn't keep doing it or it will be compared to Gore's strained sighs.) The Iraq vote has hurt her, but really she is ideally positioned to move to the center in the general election without incurring the flip-flopper attack. People can easily envision her as President. Obama's problem is that he has not been able to separate himself enough from Edwards to make it a two person race with Hillary. To some extent he may be suffering from expectations, but his nice guy, new politics, good speech-maker mantra threatens to make him into the "where's the beef?" candidate of 2008. I think that's unfair (as it probably was for Gary Hart) but he should have worked more on communicating substance both before and after announcing his campaign. His recent non-votes and illness induced passivity in the last debate haven't helped him either. All that said, Iowa is three months away. Plenty of time for a change.

This is mostly horse race stuff but that's what the article is about.