Reply #46: Certainly, it's her race to lose, but if you think back 4 years ago there were times when Gephardt

[Stop Cornyn]

seems to have it locked and times when Dean seemed to have it locked. Moreover, the voters tend to suffer from "buyer's remorse" when a candidate seems to have it locked, and the phrase "peaking too soon" has become a cliche for a reason.

Plus, Iowa is a tricky state to win because of the caucus format. Hillary could quite possibly come in third. The candidate who wins Iowa will go into New Hampshire with a bump and the ones who fall short of expectations and who come in third and worse will suffer a dip going onto New Hampshire (remember, a week before the '04 Iowa caucus, Dean was leading New Hampshire polls by as much as 30% and yet he came in second to Kerry after Kerry won Iowa and Dean fell short of expectations by finishing 3rd).

If Iowa finished Edwards 1st, Obama 2nd, and Clinton 3rd and then Edwards and Obama get boosts sufficient that New Hampshire finishes Obama 1st, Edwards 2nd, and Clinton 3rd (or Edwards 1st, Obama 2nd, and Clinton 3rd), those two consecutive third place finishes could steal all of her oxygen and fatally wound her candidacy.

Frankly, short of a serious mishap, that's just about the only scenario where I see Hillary not winning.