Perky: Why Obama can win in the South

[Perky]

Obviously He will get alot of African-american support. but in the primary I doubt it will exceed 60% but in the General election he ought to get 120% of what Kerry and Gore got. He get a bump from African AMerica enthusiasm, He gets a bump because of new registrants. but that is fairly predictable.


But here is the thing ans in some ways you have to look beyond skin tine to see this.He is attractive to Southern Whites who did not live through the 1960s... If you go back and listen to the Selma Speech he undeniably laid claim to the Dream. what Dream. MLK's "I have a Dream" He is very clearly asking to be judged not by the color of his skin but by the content of his character. And it is the combination of white guilt, genuine likability and a real recognition the Obama is not like John or Jesse or even Andy or Julian. He is a new generation full of promise and hope and not bitterness and rage. His candidacy is not about protest it is about hope.

He is the fulfillment of everything Martin Hoped for and instinctively they like that idea. The tick is that he can not be seen as beholden to the old Guard of th Civil Rights movement and yet has to appeal to an African American base that listen intently to what the old generation says.


He will get more votes than Kerry or Gore on the Basis.


Combine that with a moderate pro-choice republican with a tarnished past or a flip-flopping Governor from Mass. z. Southern conservative voters could decide to stay home.

This Perfect Storm may not win him a single Southern state other than Virginia. But If he makes the GOP spend money defending the base, that is money they will not have in Ohio and Missouri.

Truth is we win with Obama if we pick off Virginia. So don't be surprised if miracles happen.n