Reply #18: If this were true, the GOP would have used it to do the following:

[karynnj]

Per some reports there were 37 people committed to the filibuster until it was clear that it would fail. Senator Ensign was in the hospital. So, only 3 more were needed. Senator Hagel also didn't vote - though I don't know the reason. What if 3 of the more Libertarian Senators were told by the administration to oppose it on privacy, Unitary President etc? Then assume after they spoke the Democrats held firm.

Then the filibuster would win. We would then end up in your situation 1. It wouldn't even look contrived. In reality, a significant number of Republicans fear the nuclear option - so it's unlikely to happen. It's like the terror terror terror stuff - only scaring the Senate is the game.