Reply #20: Here's my bet...

[MikeS]

Theories about GWOT or 9/11 notwithstanding, saying, "Let's get out soon," is gonna be tougher said then done. No matter which Dem wins the nomination and the White House, we'll still be faced with faced with trying to contrive some kind of orderly withdrawal. Even Dennis Kucinich's plan to immediately transfer all control to the United Nations will be difficult. The logistics of the plan alone will be pretty dicey. First, they'll have to decide on some kind of UN-led command structure (under whom? The French? Germans? Indians?), then they'll have to rely on US assets to deploy and sustain whatever force they put in - no one else has the capability for force projection and sustainment that the US has. Almost every UN deployment relies on the US for such things.

The alternative, of course, is simply withdrawing without any UN replacement, leaving whatever Iraqi government in place to fend for itself. While the US is busy training a new Iraqi army and police force, who knows what kind of shape it will be in next year?

I wouldn't count on Bush to pull out - he's committed now. And any Democrat in the White House won't want to be saddled (however unfairly) with the, "Who Lost Iraq?" bullshit that would be sure to follow.