Reply #17: The myth of Hamas' victory Akiva Eldar

[azurnoir]

"Hamas' victory" is not the only myth blossoming on the Shalit deal. A whole bunch of "facts" go with it.

The deal will encourage other abductions for bargaining purposes. A quick look on a Hamas website or that of other organizations advocating a violent struggle will show that abducting Israeli soldiers and civilians remains a standing order. The Israeli governments' "firm stand" in the Ron Arad case did not deter the abductors of Nachshon Wachsman. The refusal of Yitzhak Rabin's cabinet to negotiate to free Wachsman and the (botched ) attempt to release him did not deter Shalit's captives.

Some of the 1,150 terrorists freed in 1985 in the Jibril deal caused the first intifada in 1987. First, the first intifada was not violent. Second, the intifada broke out because of the increasing rage among the young generation.

Deporting "heavy" prisoners is an Israeli achievement. The chances Israel took and the effort it put into the (botched ) attempt to murder Meshal in 1997 on an Amman street and assassinating Hamas man Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai show that exile can be an ideal habitat for master terrorists. It will be easier for Israel's security services to monitor militants in the territories and act against them when necessary.

Finally, the "fact" that Hamas has emerged as the big Palestinian winner from the deal is doubtful. Freeing Gilad Shalit took away the organization's strongest bargaining chip vis-a-vis Israel. The Israel Defense Forces' maneuvering room has grown, while shifting Meshal's headquarters from Damascus to Cairo will restrict its scope of operations.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/the-myth-of-hamas-victory-1.389781