Reply #7: Possible.

[Statistical]

Just doesn't seem likely.

Iran hasn't tested a nuclear weapon. They aren't impossible to build but they do require some testing. You can't hide a nuclear detonation. Above ground, under ground, under water it leaves behind a shockwave that can be detected around the world. Enriching uranium doesn't mean having a bomb.

While Irael could respond with nuclear weapons it just seems unlikely. That is their massive unplayed trump card. You can't undo that.
Israel in recent conflicts has only used a tiny fraction of their conventional military strength. If they don't care about casualties at all they could pound rocket sites flat from the air with standoff weapons.

To jump from rocket attacks to the 3rd use of nuclear weapons in history of mankind is kinda a leap.

Nothing is impossible it just seems extremely remote. Maybe a 100m wide asteroid (Tunguska class) will strike the middle east and wipe it all out. The likelihood of a strike that sized is about 5% per century. I think that is slightly more than a conventional war going nuclear over rocket fire.