Reply #92: first the solution....

[pelsar]

what do you think would happen if the Palestinians did stop resorting to violence?" - how much land do you think Israel would give back? Do you think they'd agree to join sovereignty over Jerusalem, or any kind of compromise on the right of return?

the answer to that lies in within israeli culture and the history of the years since intifada I. Some background: when intifada I started, the IDF in the westbank and gaza had no idea what to do (for that matter neither did fatah). The result was all kinds of attempts to "quell" the protests. During those attempts a "funny thing happened" to the reserve units..many of the members stopped showing up when called. For an israeli general or politician their worst nightmare is not having the reservists come when called, for they are the heart of israel...its educated middle class (most a bit left in character). Those reservists (including me) felt that we werent defending israel, our families werent in danger in fact we werent really sure just what we were doing there.....and so the pressure began on the govt and olso got going.....

second event: the withdrawl from gaza. Gaza is as holy to the settlers as the westbank, there is no difference. When the withdrawl started the right could only muster about 100,000 to protest. Not much to make an impression and almost no soldier refused the orders to participate. What does that mean?....that the settlers do not control the govt nor the IDF.

you should be asking by now, that if the settlers dont control the govt, and so many israelis dont really want to keep the territories...whats going on? For that i refer to you back to the reservists, whos units today are filled with over 100%. The answer is quite simple, we look at gaza we look at lebanon. Its clear that by giving back the westbank we'll have kassams/mortors on our cities...no two ways about it. The PA/Hamas have no control over their members, that should be obvious by now. Hence we are protecting our families by going to the reserves. We may not like it, but there is little choice.

If the palestenians actually stopped the violence and went the non violent route?...thats the nightmare of every settler. More than half of israel would be cheering them on. The IDF which would be sent to "stop" them, would find themselves in a worse position than intifada I, which had some violence (they would find themselves on the same side as the settlers..not a nice thought). Reservists would stop going, they would influence their kids, kids like mine would be revolted by the TV cameras showing IDF units beating up unarmed sitting protestors.... and far more important....is for the palestenians themselves, they would actually see some gains from the non violent protests. Israelis would actually join them, not the fringe element that now shows up but the center/left that worked with the palestenians during oslo. The settlers who enjoy an indirect support today since we need to be in the westbank to keep the kassams out of our cities, would lose that support..and that would be the beginning of the end of the settlement enterprise.

but far more important for the palestenians themselves, they would see the beginning of the end of their gun culture and perhaps the idea of human rights and non violent protest as a means of effecting change (the non violent protests in gaza during the last weeks only got the protesters killed by the various palestenians forces)

Once us israelis have some confidence in the palestenian society.....jerusalem, compensation, land swaps become peanuts...but it all has to start with them. We broke the cycle, changed the rules, did the dramatic.....we destroyed the settlements of gaza and left.....and all we got were kassams. And the palestenains got themselves a mini civil war. Neither are promising events that give us confidence in doing anything dramatic.

the palestenains have a cultural problem.....its a culture gap between israel, a western democracy vs an arab/muslim regime steeped in tribal loyalties. Israels weakness is the non violent protests.....the macho palestenian culture has little respect for the nonviolent protest (examples being that they've shot their own protestors), and prefers the gun.....the only problem with that strategy is that its been a massive failure for the last 50+ years......what do they say about the definition of insanity? some one who does the samething over and over again and expects a different result.

Its a shame, the nonviolent protests would do both cultures wonders....

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the expectations...i'll make this one a bit short, maybe come back to it later. On one hand i understand the idea that putting the pressure on where it will do the most good. i.e. israel will respond to pressure whereas Burma wont. The problem is that Burma (actually they changed the name...) isnt on israels borders..and thats where the problem really lies.

if the palestenians cant be expected to live up to the same standards as israel in terms of human rights, how does that translate to the palestenian society next to ours? If they can't be expected to have the same basic values as the western society what does that mean in terms of contracts? cease fires, peace agreements? If they dont respond to western pressure, if the left wont put the same pressure on them for their own war crimes (which is pretty obvious they dont), then us israeli once again have little confidence in not just the intl groups that do have this "dual standard" but in the palestenian society that cant/wont reach for the standard.

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and a final comment....like many here i find in your posts that israel simply "must have palestenain/arab land simply absurd..history and the math shows the opposite:

israel took arab land in all directions: north/south/east and west:

south to egypt, it was returned and there is peace (1)
west to gaza...it was returned and we got kassams (2)
north to lebanon, we got kidnapped soldiers and 6 years of attacks (3)
east to jordan....well they dont want the westbank
syria is still in the undecided stage.

so what do we see: israel returned land in 3 directions (3 out of 4 = 75%).....that blows the Israel must have arab land theory out the window. The only way you can hang on to that theory is via some "the westbank is holier than the others" except that to the settlers gaza was just as holy.....that doesnt leave much for the theory and the math doesnt lie.


in retuning land, one lead to peace two lead to additional attacks. 66% is a losing precentage. Furthermore Egypts border is peaceful because egypt has a strong central govt (this includes syria and jordan) and patrols its borders. The pa is fractured and cant, lebanon until the last war was in the same situation...and the westbank?....it has similar characteristics of both gaza and lebanon and none of egypt, syria and jordan.

retuning the westbank right now will only lead to more vlolence...that should be obvious both internally within the PA and externally with israel. So the question is whats more important....land or lives?