Reply #447: Iraq's story is one of hope and surprise

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Two years on and Iraq has had its first elections, but little else has turned out as expected.

The country is on the edge of civil war. For almost two years a Sunni-led insurgency has fought United States and Iraqi security forces. The new Shia-led government looks destined to wage a bloody war of repression in Sunni tribal areas, while pushing for an Islamic-based state. Secular, moderating voices have been bullied into silence by bombings and murders.

Many of these problems were the inevitable outcome of the invasion of the country, although they have been magnified by a series of American mistakes and miscalculations. At the heart of Iraq's failings is the extraordinary fact that when US and British troops streamed across the Iraqi border, they did so without a workable plan.

There was originally a plan. In the months leading up to the invasion, the US state department held discussions with Iraqi exiles, resulting in a 2,000-page document called the Future of Iraq. It foresaw the need for a massive US troop presence to prevent looting and an Iraqi-directed reconstruction process which would take years – precisely the sort of findings to make anyone rethink the wisdom of an invasion.

Telegraph UK