Reply #52: Bin Laden's losing bet...

[cantwealljustgetalong]

The United States' global "war on terrorism" has clearly entered a new phase. Regardless of how one feels about the US-led war in Iraq, the results of that war, and especially the increased capability that US forces have shown in fighting terrorism, capturing Saddam Hussein and gaining valuable intelligence thereby, have had a decisive effect. Even if there has never been any connection between Saddam's government and al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden placed a strong wager in terms of resources and men on Iraq, and he appears to be in great danger of losing his bet.

The tape bin Laden released early this month indicates his sense of gloom and of failure that the Arab states remain in power and have not actively resisted the Americans. In fact the exact opposite has happened, particularly once Saddam was captured. Libya has not only announced the termination of its nuclear and other programs for weapons of mass destruction, Muammar Gaddafi has also invited foreign inspectors into Libya and has now publicly put out feelers to Israel. Egypt has tried to mediate between Israel and the Palestinians - and has duly become the latest recipient of the Palestinians' usual gratitude for such endeavors, so it is unlikely to persist very strongly in its efforts. But it is likely that its ties to Israel will improve, even if only slightly. And in any case Hosni Mubarak, not the Muslim Brotherhood, still reigns.

Syria not only improved ties with India - for bin Laden a leading enemy of Islam - it has also found reason to make similar gestures to Turkey, another of bin Laden's betes noirs and principal targets. Clearly it too feels the US heat and pressure as more and more revelations of its duplicity and conniving with Iraq to evade sanctions become clear. The United Kingdom and the US have both told President Basher al-Assad that he too must give up his weapons of mass destruction at once and do so unconditionally without any regard for Israel's supposed possession of such weapons. Iran too has announced its willingness to have inspections and apparently to make a rapprochement with the US and Europe. And we should probably assume that those elements of al-Qaeda who have found a refuge in Iran are first of all under very tight wraps and, second, probably can sense the ground shifting beneath their feet.

All these defeats signify the failure of bin Laden's quest, and the tape reveals that his response, an entirely predictable one, is to call for more violence and to exhibit more signs of the megalomania that figures like him usually possess. For here he casts himself as the only true defender of the faith against a sea of infidels, betrayers, etc.

However, his worst defeat has taken place, or is about to take place, in Pakistan. Here again the terrorists overreached. By trying and failing twice to assassinate President General Pervez Musharraf, they apparently convinced him that the risks of terrorism outweigh those posed or allegedly posed by India. Therefore the conflict with India must be at least suspended. Moreover, it is clear that the future of Pakistan is at stake and that the terrorist blowback is too great to ignore any longer. Thus Musharraf has acceded to enormous external pressure, much of it but hardly all of it from Washington, and has announced his unconditional readiness to begin consolidated negotiations with India over all outstanding issues, including Kashmir. At the same time, on Thursday Pakistani forces launched a new offensive against al-Qaeda's troops and followers. Very likely there will also be a domestic crackdown on them as well.

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FA14Df05.html