Reply #10: You really hate shades of gray, don't you?

[GliderGuider]

I'm certainly not anti-energy, whatever that means. But I am a "peak oil guy".

My position on energy sources is this:

• Oil: The peak is now, we will be effectively out of it by 2080.
  
• Gas: The peak is in 4 years, we will be effectively out of it by 2060.
  
• Hydro: Most of the best sites are already developed. We will continue to develop it at a low rate (~1.5% pa) until a plateau in 2040.
  
• Nuclear: The public relations battle has been lost, the question of developing it is now moot. It will rise to a production peak in 2025, then fall off by 5% pa afterwards.
  
• Coal: Will rise by 0.5% per year to 2025, then gradually taper off by -0.5% per year after that.
  
• Wind etc.: Will rise by 10% pa growth for the next 15 years, after which the growth rate will fall off to a plateau in 2050.

The shape of the world's energy curve will look about like this:



World population will start to decline in 2020-2025, not because of absolute energy shortages, but due to dislocations brought on either directly or indirectly by oil shortages. The population decline will be supported by the decline in total energy availability. Yes, I might be an early casualty.

There is little to nothing that our advocacy can do to stop this - it's a runaway train, the throttle is jammed open, and the brakeman has stolen the handle.