My bad. My comment applies to your response here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x295208#295209">What do you suggest?
the calculations are not meant to be a formal submission to Sec of Energy. I was using J.D. Powers estimate and wanted to stay with their time frame. Any forcast beyond 10 years is fraught with so much variance risk and have such wide confidence intervals as to be considered a SWAG.
Did you feel the article you cited offers 'tighter' estimating methodology???