Can the U.S. phase out coal’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030?

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es101320m

Can the U.S. phase out coal’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030?

A new paper by a leading group of scientists, engineers, and architects argues that the U.S. could eliminate CO₂ emissions from coal in 20 years.

Kellyn Betts
Environ. Sci. Technol., Article ASAP
DOI: 10.1021/es101320m
Publication Date (Web): April 30, 2010
Copyright © 2010 American Chemical Society

The U.S. could end its global warming emissions from coal in two decades by embracing a collection of proven and promising technologies, according to a new ES&T paper http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es903884a">(Environ. Sci. Technol. DOI 10.1021/es903884a). Climate scientists James Hansen and Pushker Kharecha, together with Charles Kutscher of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and noted architect Edward Mazria, say their paper targets coal because it is the energy source that is most responsible for accumulated fossil fuel CO₂ in today’s atmosphere.

Kharecha and Hansen, both of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Columbia University Earth Institute, and their coauthors argue that fast action is demanded by recent revelations in the field of climate science. For example, a draft of the http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rpts/car5/index.htm">Fifth U.S. Climate Action Report released in mid-April says that current effects of climate change include water cycle disruptions, vanishing mountain glaciers, and extreme weather events. In the new paper, the scientists write, “The ‘safe’ long-term level of atmospheric greenhouse gases is much lower than has been supposed, (and CO₂ concentrations are) already into the dangerous zone.”

The ES&T paper is both noteworthy and valuable for conveying the urgency of changing the mix of technologies used to produce U.S. electricity, says Robert N. Schock, the http://www.worldenergy.org/">World Energy Council’s director of studies. Shock played a key role in developing the climate change mitigation technology recommendations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He says that the collection of energy efficiency, renewable, and nuclear power technologies discussed in the new paper are consistent with the IPCC’s recommendations.

The mix of technologies is also very similar to the assortment that the electric power industry is investigating to meet future generation needs based on expected regulatory drivers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, says Revis James, director of the Energy Technology Assessment Center run by the nonprofit http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?">Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). He adds that the paper and EPRI’s research agree that “successful decarbonization will require a fairly diverse set of technologies.”

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http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es903884a

Options for Near-Term Phaseout of CO₂ Emissions from Coal Use in the United States

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Abstract

The global climate problem becomes tractable if CO₂ emissions from coal use are phased out rapidly and emissions from unconventional fossil fuels (e.g., oil shale and tar sands) are prohibited. This paper outlines technology options for phasing out coal emissions in the United States by 2030. We focus on coal for physical and practical reasons and on the U.S. because it is most responsible for accumulated fossil fuel CO₂ in the atmosphere today, specifically targeting electricity production, which is the primary use of coal. While we recognize that coal emissions must be phased out globally, we believe U.S. leadership is essential. A major challenge for reducing U.S. emissions is that coal provides the largest proportion of base load power, i.e., power satisfying minimum electricity demand. Because this demand is relatively constant and coal has a high carbon intensity, utility carbon emissions are largely due to coal. The current U.S. electric grid incorporates little renewable power, most of which is not base load power. However, this can readily be changed within the next 2−3 decades. Eliminating coal emissions also requires improved efficiency, a “smart grid”, additional energy storage, and advanced nuclear power. Any further coal usage must be accompanied by carbon capture and storage (CCS). We suggest that near-term emphasis should be on efficiency measures and substitution of coal-fired power by renewables and third-generation nuclear plants, since these technologies have been successfully demonstrated at the relevant (commercial) scale. Beyond 2030, these measures can be supplemented by CCS at power plants and, as needed, successfully demonstrated fourth-generation reactors. We conclude that U.S. coal emissions could be phased out by 2030 using existing technologies or ones that could be commercially competitive with coal within about a decade. Elimination of fossil fuel subsidies and a substantial rising price on carbon emissions are the root requirements for a clean, emissions-free future.