Reply #5: It isn't hard to realize China is a lot different than the US (especially US in 1980s)

[Statistical]

Regulatory/Legal:
Do you think there will be any protestors chaining themselves to reactor gates, filing numerous petty lawsuits (with no hope of winning just trying to run the clock out), and making bomb threats to slow/delay reactor construction? Do you think there will be a massive amount of regulatory ratcheting in China (like what happened in US in 1980s)?

Resources:
COAL. Coal is insanely cheap (when ignoring all externalized costs). China has roughly 1/2 the US supply of coal with 6x the people. China has already exceeded current production and is now importing coal (China was major world exporter just 5 years ago). This is a huge economic & security issue for Chinese government. Cheap coal always undercut nuclear energy in terms of price per kWh. That is unlikely to happen in China. China will heat peak coal in next decade and if coal consumption continues to grow will become more and more dependent on foreign sources.

Infrastructure:
China isn't just buying reactors. They are building reactor factories. Obviously if you want a few of an item it is far cheaper to simply buy them however if you are going to need hundreds it makes much more sense to buy the factory. China expenditures in nuclear energy go far beyond the here and now. It is unlikely they will abandon the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on constructing reactor factories (to produce components).

Public Perception:
In US the combination of TMI and Cernobyl 7 years apart was a one-two punch. Pushed public support for nuclear power to an alltime low. Even in the US time has healed old wounds and support has risen from 46% to 62% in the last decade. The combination of rising fossil fuel costs + climate change + new reactor designs + 25 years without an accident is raising global perception. There is nothing to think that Chinese citizens perception of nuclear power is closer to US circa 1980s than US perception today.


China will have 60 reactors by 2020 and 200 reactors by 2040.