Reply #13: The press exaggerates

[kristopher]

(and so do you) It is an interesting paper, and it is very good that they caught this early on so that mitigation efforts can be implemented.

The numbers quoted in the press are based on an interesting statement from the paper:
"The maximum potential release of NF3, assumed here to be its production, is equivalent to approximately 67 MMTCO2....
NF3 is an expensive commodity with an estimated price of about $US 20 per kg, and thus there are economic as well as environmental incentives not to waste it through inadvertent release. According to Robson et al. <2006>, most of NF3 is used in a manner such that only 2% escapes to the atmosphere, but this contrasts with studies by Lee et al. <2007> showing a maximum destruction efficiency of less than 97% under ideal conditions..."(

So actually only a very small fraction of NF3 is released. Let's assume the high finding of 3% released is low and 5% is actually the amount being wasted. 5% x 67MMTCO2e = 3.35 MMTCO2e as a probable amount released in 2008. To put this in perspective the paper notes that 2005 CO2 emissions were 15,128MMTCO2 and they use a 3600MW coal plant in Georgia as a benchmark for coal powerplant emissions; it emits 25MMTCO2/yr.
So NF3 = 3.35MMTCO2e
1 large coal plant = 25MMTCO2/yr
Total CO2 = 15,128MMTCO2/yr
PRATHER AND HSU: MISSING KYOTO GAS NF3 (Pg. 2)
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L12810

There is no disputing that it is too much, especially as we ramp up production of solar; but it isn't the calamity some nnumbnuts make it out to be. With a lifespan of 500 years it is much more persistent than CO2, but much less of a threat to future generations than millions of tons of 100,000+ year highly radioactive waste.