Reply #5: I think 90% is a bit extreme.

[GliderGuider]

I've just completed a methodical, though necessarily speculative, projection of global energy supplies, http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP2/WEAP2.html">World Energy to 2050. I conclude that the we'll lose 30% of our total energy by then. The majority of that loss will be oil and natural gas, which combined may decline by 75% or a bit more. Given the added contributions of solar and wind, and the continued performance of coal, hydro and nuclear power, overall energy supplies will decline by only about 30%. Unfortunately, that 30% robs us of most of the transportation and heating fuels we use today.



Paul Chefurka