Reply #6: Surprise!

[cosmicaug]

papau wrote:

I agree - Junker's concern with basic econ common sense being ignored is quite valid.

And if he quits making those silly "in three days the price of gold will triple" types of predictions (O.K., he didn't actually make that prediction, but you get my point) he'll have that much more credibility (as long as he isn't quoting some English guy who's really, really good at financial astrology or quoting some guy who knows a guy who does a lot of crystal meth and is really tuned into the underground economy of the Hell's Angels).

papau wrote:

What amazes me is how the Street is rewarding house econ folks good predictions of next weeks number on something/anything with big bonus/praise - along as it comes with the optimistic spin, while the street is ignoring everything else - meaning all the times the projection is silly.

Why the surprise? Hasn't this been the modus operandi in the past too? Why would things be any different now? Did any of those "house econ folks" make any less money in the past for making wildly optimistic but inaccurate forecasts or any more money for making more glum but accurate forecasts?

Just wondering