Reply #48: World War 1 would have happened.

[HawkerHurricane]

Archduke Ferdinand's assassination was the excuse, not the cause.

Austria wanted to conquer Serbia, and get territory back from Russia.
Russia wanted more territory from Austria and Turkey.
Germany wanted territory in Russia.
France wanted revenge on Germany for the Franco-Prussian war (and Alsace/Loraine back).
England wanted to take Germany down a notch for building a fleet (and territory from Turkey)
Turkey wanted more territory in Russia, and to take Egypt back from England.
Italy wanted territory from both France and Austria.

Did I leave anyone out?

1. Serbian Nationalist assassinates Archduke Ferdinand.
2. Austria declares war on Serbia.
3. Russia declares war on Austria (to defend fellow Slavs in Serbia).
4. Germany declares war on Russia as per mutual defence treaty with Austria.
5. France declares war on Germany due to treaty with Russia.
6. Germany attacks France by marching through Belgium.
7. England declares war on Germany over attack on Belguim.
(Now we have Serbia, Russia, France and England vs. Austria, Germany... somewhere in there Turkey got involved)
8. Italy decides France isn't going to lose, declares war on Austria instead.
9. U.S. declares war on Germany over submarine warfare, 'Zimmerman Telegram'.

World War 1 was going to happen... it was just a matter of what the spark was, and which side Italy joined, and when the U.S. was going to join, and how long Russia would last...