Reply #8: OK, but please explain why Mr. Dean isn't the Democratic Nominee

[snowFLAKE]

Because, by using your "predictive" methods, virtually all polls done over a period of several months in advance of the Primaries had him as The Sure Thing.

The point is that polls have no predictive abilities statistically speaking. Sure, you can attempt to extrapolate into the future based on trends from past elections you feel might mimic this one, but then you've moved from being completely objective (i.e., statistical) to being subjective.

Presidential elections are unique events not amenable to statistical methods. Unless, of course, you account for all eventualities - will Mr. Kerry self-destruct ala Senator's Hart's Donna Rice affair? What's the probably of that? Will Mr. Bush finally snap in public? Will the raping-the-children-in-Iraq story finally get some media attention? Will anyone care? Again, what's the probability of these events? Basically, they haven't happened enough times to assign numbers.