When a child is threatened they do not turn from the parent, they turn to the parent. Look at how well the first strike did for Bush--his popularity shot up. Look at Rudy G. popularity after he solidified New York after 9/11. I don't think he was that popular before the tragedy.
Another strike will prove Bush right--that this is (his words, not mine) a fight of good vs. evil and will give our government the opportunity to impose more restrictions on our freedom. Very few would say "Bush should have seen it coming" and he can always point to his alert system as the scape goat.
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