Reply #151: 4:00 PM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

[GOPAgainstGW]

4:00 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 – 25
Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 125
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 155
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 12 MPH. (I) +2
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 930 MB...27.46 Inches (D)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 28.2 north...longitude 92.6 west, 155 miles
east-southeast of Galveston, Texas, 140 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas
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I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

Center of dangerous hurricane Rita expected to make landfall near daybreak Saturday. Rita is expected to come ashore as a dangerous category three hurricane. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles near the path of Rita.

Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans with isolated heavier amounts possible.

Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly after making landfall...total accumulations locally in excess of 25 inches are possible over the next several days across Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana. Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southeastern Texas...southern Louisiana including southern Mississippi and Alabama.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the national hurricane center at 6 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 pm CDT.

====GOPA Comments===
Pressure has decreased again. Significant reformation in eyewall in the last hour. Many of the current track projections became invalid in the last hour.

BASED ON CURRENT DATA, HURRICANE RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE.