Reply #20: New Mexico

[Lexingtonian]

His reelect number there was polled at 40% about two weeks ago.

The ones that really matter are Ohio, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.
West Virginia and Nevada are good too.

Nationwide W has been going down at a remarkably steady 1.5%/month from a (war fervor blip) high of 50.5% on March 10. Reelect polling differences from the nationwide number generally resemble each state's variation from the national average for Bush in the 2000 elections. (So, to estimate the current # for your home state within 1-2 percent, subtract 7.0% from the percentage he got in that election.)

Around 43% reelect W would lose an election narrowly- his personal approval ratings (honest, nice, well-meaning are all descriptions over 60% agree with) are presently too high to not get the best possible slice (about a third) of Undecideds- against a Democratic challenger with a solid Democratic base of 38%. Around 40% he would lose a big bloc of electoral votes. At 38% or below it's electoral college landslide time.