Reply #24: They May Still Attempt An Iran Petro Grab, Even In Our Current Situation

[Strelnikov_]

Nearly all of Iran's oil is within a 3 hr. M1 ride from the Iraq border, in flat (tank) country. My bet on how this will play out is that a 'Gulf of Tonkin' will be manufactured and this small part of Iran occupied, with no real intention of moving beyond the Zagros mountains to the population centers.

As a response to the original post, yes, they did think it would be as easy as kicking out Saddam, installing a client state, and withdrawing into permanent bases ala post WW2 Europe. They were victims of group-think, ignoring and discrediting any data that did not support their concept on how things would go.

And this is my biggest worry about this bunch. Not only do they make the wrong decision, they execute the wrong decision poorly.

It is about the oil. It has always been about the oil. Let's face it, the fact that we are on reason 3 for the war is an insult to those of use with some intelligence (WMD->Terraists->Democracy).