Reply #10: How popular is Bustamente? Can he win? It IS a Dem state.

[Brotherjohn]

Even if most people think the recall is a done deal, with even former supporters voting to recall, California DOES lean Democratic. I don't think the recall changes that.

Besides, there are only 2-3 major Dems on the ticket, and I would think most Dems would stick with the Lt. Gov. even if they recall Davis.

Yet there are a slew of major Repubs and independents, and I think that's got to split the vote up, no matter how well-known Arnold is. I'm not counting the "joke" candidates from both parties (Gallagher, Gary Coleman, Father Guido Sarducci, Angelyne, Richard Lewis, and porn stars and magnates alike).

It seems to me that unless most other major Repubs drop out of the race, the Repub vote is going to be split between Arnold, Bill Simon, state Sen. Tom McClintock, former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, and perhaps even independent Arianna Huffington. She's a former Republican, and very much along the lines of moderate Repubs in CA.

I could easily see Bustamente getting 30-35% of the vote, Arnold getting 20-30%, and the rest being split between the others.

However, is there going to be a run-off?

ON EDIT:
The CA Secretary of State web page says the following:
"If a majority of the voters vote “yes” on the first question, then the recall is successful, and the replacement candidate who gets the most votes is elected for the unexpired term of office."

That seems to say that there will be no run-off. I think unless most of the well-known (i.e. legitimate) major Republican candidates drop out and put all their effort behind one candidate, Bustamente will win. I don't want to give them any ideas, however.