Reply #9: at this point..

[paulsbc]

I voted Bush winning in a squeaker, and here is why I believe this *today*

-> Bush has returned to his pre-9/11 ratings, meaning we, as a nation, are as divided as every w.r.t. Dem/Rep, so any race held today would be close

-> The Democrats don't have a solid candidate, which, today, is to be expected given the timeframe we are in. Given the wide open nature of the field, it is hard to determine where the party/nom will be in Nov 2004

-> The economy is beginning to show signs of life, and we all know (well, I think we all know), that the economy will be the big issue in 04'

-> The Iraq conflict is still seen favorably by a majority of Americans, and my guess as to why given all the BS about it is that, to the core, Americans love when we take out dictators and free a people, that is the only way I can figure it on that one.

So, today, I voted Bush in a squeaker, as that is what it appears to me the most likely outcome.

However, there are a number of things I believe can tip the balance back to our side

1) The economy stalls or retreats. This will kill Bush in the 04 general. The economy is the #1 issue, IMO.

2) Another 9/11 attack. Depending on when it occurs, it will either boost Bush or really hurt him. Hurt him in that he will be shown to not be protecting America, and we can use that to our advantage in the election

3) A STRONG Democrat candidate. And, I'm sorry, I don't see one just yet. The only one of the 9 that I think could beat Bush if 1 or 2 happens is Dean. However, if 1 AND 2 do not happen, then Dean is the worst candidate. Tough call here...

My big hope, and I guess this is too early and too hopeful, is that a strong minority Democrat would declare and run, one that had a good past and strong leadership and oratory skills, one with a long track record of Democrat ideals, but in a progressive way, and one that could unify the party. Sharpton just isn't it, given his history, IMO, and I'm not clued into national politics enough to know if such a minority candidate exists that we could draft...