USNews&WR: Primaries Show Anti-Incumbent Wave May Be Overblown

[rasputin1952]

By Jessica Rettig
Posted May 24, 2010

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In the most watched race of the day, the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, Rep. Joe Sestak beat incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter 54 percent to 46 percent. But pinning Specter's defeat on an anti-incumbent mood would be too simple, says Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics
and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College. Consider that on the House side, not a single congressional incumbent in either party lost in the primary, he says, adding, "You can't exactly say that's an uprising against the establishment, can you?"

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Another race where Washington endorsements had little value was Kentucky's Republican Senate primary. Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who was backed by Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, lost by 23 points to Tea Party favorite Rand Paul. In the past, establishment endorsements, such as those by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and party bigwigs like McConnell, would have generated more donations and more campaign volunteers. In this race, however, the Tea Party movement used its own set of activists and online social media networks to propel Paul, ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul, to victory.

Even putting anti-Washington sentiment aside, there's little evidence that endorsements on their own ever make much of a difference, says Penn's Lapinski. Rather it was the resources that came with an endorsement that could give the establishment's pick an edge.

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Nobody in the country is eager to side with the establishment these days, but Critz's victory, and perhaps Lincoln's slight edge, could be proof that a connection to Washington isn't necessarily the political death sentence that many had believed it would be.

Still, with their old political bunkers largely torn down by voter discontent nationwide, incumbents and beltway veterans
will certainly have to fight the hard fight in the coming months.

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/politics/2010/05/24/primaries-show-anti-incumbent-wave-may-be-overblown_print.htm



I've said for a long time that the GOP takeover is overblown...I still hold to that, no one wants to go back the the GOP ideology of insane de-regulation and self immolation. It is not as gloomy as it appears in the media.