Reply #22: The 159k number is bogus

[bhikkhu]

...more or less made up, based on the effect of other deals made under unfavorable conditions. The point I was trying to make is that good policies can have good results. The opposite is certainly true as well.

The 159k number comes from one group who looked at deals made under unfavorable monetary policies. When we declare "free trade" with a partner whose currency trades at a discount to ours, the effect is to make imports cheaper than domestic production here, and you wind up with more imports and less exports. The long term effect is to destroy domestic production, and encourage overseas production. That's a bad policy.

When you make a trade deal under favorable economic policies, things can be more balanced and trade can strengthen both partners. South Korea is a modern economy like our own, with a similar standard of living and wage structure, good benefits, and an excellent national health insurance program. We're not competing with slave labor there.

Overall, Obama has pursued a goal of doubling US exports by 2015, by both trade policies and a good monetary policy. If you google "US export growth", you might be surprised; I know it has gotten little press and the president gets little credit, but things in have been going well on that front.

Again, good policies bring good results. Its no good judging from data from other deals under different circumstances - you can look at current data, as the administration has, for the most likely effect of current policies.