Reply #11: In Quebec, it likely will

[Ken Burch]

The NDP is at 39% support there in the EKOS poll, beating the Bloc Quebecois by thirteen points. Montreal will likely go strongly NDP and a number of Bloc ridings in other areas(where the Bloc was supported as a left party as much as a separatist party)are likely to swing Orange as well.

The crucial battleground is Toronto. it's the last area where the NDP is heavily behind the Liberals, and if that flips, it will be a cliffhanger between the NDP and the Tories overall.

And, from what I've been reading, the Election Prediction site has constructed itself to have a delay in registering swings in popular vote opinion and, consequently, seat projections. We may not see that site or the other seat projection sites catch up until this weekend, if at all.