Reply #13: I agree. This won't go down all that well in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Ohio among whites, IMHO.

[amandabeech]

I think that there are plenty of people who really don't want affirmative action anymore. Michigan now has an anti-affirmative action law like California. This won't play there.

All three states have many older voters. McCain will exploit Obama's youth focus and anti-babyboomer message, too.

I don't know if an increased African American vote in the big cities in those states will be able to counteract the problems Obama could face.

The three have a chunk of electoral votes that Obama would have to make up somewhere, and, frankly, I don't know where.