Reply #13: what to think?...

[stillcool]

Targeting Iran
by Saman Sepehri
International Socialist Review, November-December 20006
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There is no alternative for the United States. The U.S. cannot just concede the Middle East. Whatever the difficulties, it will not walk away from the most important strategic area in a world economy defined by greater energy needs.
The United States is not out of options in its dealings with Iran. There is still a possibility of pushing through certain scaled down resolutions through the UN Security Council to force other countries to curb trade with Iran (if we can't have Iran-you can't either), cutting Iran's economic ties, and weakening its economy. There is the possibility of using such UN resolutions as a fig leaf (just like in the invasion of Iraq) for more aggressive tactics when the time comes-such as harassment, ship searches, and a blockade of goods traveling into Iran's ports with the excuse of stopping military and nuclear shipments. This would certainly bottle up the Iranian navy, and prevent the possible closing or mining of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation for a U.S. attack-a serious concern since about half of the world's oil exports travel through this twenty-mile wide waterway. This "soft blockade" could also provoke an "incident" which could be used as a pretext to launch wider assaults.
And finally, taking a page out of the Iraq playbook, the United States has already started a campaign of destabilization through fomenting ethnic unrest. There have already been a series of explosions and bombings targeting mostly civilians, in Khuzestan and Kurdish cities bordering Iraq, and raids on government vehicles and even civilians in Baluchestan, on the Pakistani border, by small groups which have surfaced calling for independence. Given the Iranian regime's history of repression, the demands for autonomy and independence, especially in Kurdistan, can actually strike a chord and mesh with real grievances. This crisis may take time to develop. Or an incident in the Persian Gulf may accelerate the pace of events. But the confrontation with Iran will come. It will be our job in the U.S. to organize a movement against yet another U.S. military adventure in the Middle East.

Saman Sepehri is author of "The Geopolitics of Oil" (ISR 26, November-December 2002) and "The Iranian Revolution" (ISR 9, August-September 2000).http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Iran/Targeting_Iran.html