Reply #98: Today's Pfening

[54anickel]

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=595

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OK... Today is a Jobs Jamboree Friday, and the thoughts going around the markets are that there will be 210K jobs created during February, and that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.7% (yeah, right... And my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor! Yeah, Elizabeth Taylor, that's the ticket!)

These numbers are being touted as enough to get the Fed to move rates higher 3 more times... I say Hogwash! Let's look at the real meat of this Jobs Jamboree... Avg. Hourly Earnings, which is expected to fall to a .3% gain vs. last month's .4% gain... Hmmmm, no wage pressures there... And the Average Weekly Hours, which is expected to remain at 33.8... Hmmm... No overtime... No wage pressures... So... Where's the beef? Where does it show us that the Fed needs to hike 3 more times? I don't see it, do you? No, wait, let me put my rose-colored glasses on... Nope! Still don't see it!

Oh well, I carry on despite this big pain in my neck! Yesterday... The U.S. Trade Deficit ballooned to $68.5 billion in January... That's $3 billion more than was expected, and 5.3% more than last month's record! ... And still the dollar held the hammer on the day... Shopping till we drop, eh? Richard Iley, economist with BNP Paribas, said the trade gap's mathematics are starting to look daunting. "With goods imports 90% bigger than exports, exports need to grow almost twice as fast as imports just to stabilize the trade balance," Iley said.

But the dollar bulls didn't care... Deficits don't matter... You know, I have someone that keeps writing me and telling me that the fellows over at Gave-Kal have written a book explaining why this time it will be different, and that deficits don't matter... Well... To that I say... This sounds all too familiar... Didn't the think tanks tell us in 1999 and 2000 that "this time the stock market rally will be different" and that earnings for stocks weren't necessary?