Reply #59: Special elections do not always indicate a partisan trend

[Zambero]

Keep in mind that Democrats recently won 2 special congressional elections in upstate New York, both of them in traditional Republican strongholds. If I recall correctly, one of them flipped back to the GOP in the last mid-term. Point is, there is volatility and unpredictability in the electorate that, on the local level often overrides what might be seen as a national trend. Local issues relating to large demographic groups and the strength (or weakness of a given candidate) will almost always come into play. In this instance, Weprin scored no points with Orthodox Jews with his support of gay marriage, a sovereign Palestinian state, and for construction of the Islamic cultural center in lower Manhattan. He may have been right on those issues, but it still cost him votes and more than likely the election. As for the NV special election, that seat has been solidly in Republican hands for decades. No "trend" there, regardless of how conservatives wish to spin it.