Reply #6: If Shiites are coming off the bench

[DrBB]

...we are in some real pretty shit indeed. Tricky thing here: it's not just Shiites vs Americans (vs Sunnis). It's one guy leading a radical Shiite faction who sees going after the US as a way to achieve preeminence in his own sect and thereby achieve credibility as the guy who will help them consolidate power over against their long-time oppressors, the Sunnis.

Up to now, the Shiite majority has been content to let the US fight the Sunnis and take the losses. Which maybe they still are, as a populace. But Moqtada Al Sadr is now betting that, with Bremer's idiot move of shutting down his newspaper, he's in a position to mobilize Siite resentment toward both entities (Sunnis and the US) as a way to shoulder aside the more conciliatory leadership and take over the leadership. The US is getting ready to stomp on the Shiites hard in vengeance for slaughtering the mercenaries. I'm guessing thal Sadr has seen this for what it is: a moment of vulnerability for both his enemies. A moment when he can exercise his ability to mobilize the Shiites to maximum advantage. If non-affiliated Shiites see him as able to wield power against both bad guys, it will enhance his position.

He has been cut out of any role in the up-coming constitutional settlement (which is itself a horrible fraud). He's got nothing to gain by playing nice and everything to gain by wreaking havoc.