Reply #104: why should the price go up?

[protocol rv]

Thus far the oil spilled is about 25 % of the Exxon Valdez volume. It looks ugly in the pictures, but it's not that bad. Since that field wasn't producing (it's a new well), its production doesn't factor into national supply. As a result of the oil slick, some offset platforms have been closed. Also, the government ordered all new drilling suspended for now. Therefore if the oil prices go up they will do so in about a year, when the oil from wells drilled in the summer of 2010 would be showing in the market in quantity.

But there's an offseting factor, the Saudis and Kuwaitis will increase their production to offset US decline, therefore the impact will be negligible. Economic growth in China and the Euro crisis will have a much larger impact. :-)