Reply #98: Contrary Investor has a free monthly newsletter that you can

[slipslidingaway]

receive by email, they are one of the sites I credit with helping us preserve our retirement funds.

I posted the monthly article in the Economy Forum at the beginning of April along with the monthly article (from August 2007) detailing the multi-year or multi-decade trend breaks that need to be monitored.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x37175


"...Although we believe each individual chart tells its own story, our main point in this discussion is that collectively, these relationships represent multi-year or multi-decade trend breaks for now. They are now occurring in simultaneous fashion. Just a coincidence? We think not. Moreover, we suggest an important need for continual monitoring as these trends quite similarly hug trends in powerful demographic changes. Could it really be that as the boomers push near and into retirement, what has been their dramatic impact on asset inflation through continual expansion in household leverage is changing? We believe this is indeed the primary question and message to continue to monitor in these relationships. As we’ve suggested many a time, the credit cycle is the key. And this is a slice of the broader credit cycle as it applies to households. Households key to longer-term consumption trends important to both the US domestic and many a foreign exporting economy. You know we’ll be checking back in on a quarterly basis to monitor whether these initial trend changes remain intact, or are simply blips on the ever-growing leverage expansion screen."


From March 30, 2000

See link for charts
http://contraryinvestor.com/moarchive2000/mo033000.htm

"...If It Looks Like A Top and Walks Like A Top...Is it just another "buying opportunity"? Obviously, we're going to find out real soon. As we "guessed" over the last month or so, volatility is increasing in the big averages. Especially the NASDAQ. Tim's fine work could not be more clear:


Today's last ditch effort to save the NAZ worked...for now. Our question is, just how many more share of Cisco does Janus plan to buy? (Answer: As much as it takes, obviously.) Don't they own enough already? A this rate, Chambers better be ready to warm up another Board seat.

Tim's channel work on the S&P continues to be picture perfect. In fact, eerily right on the money:

The next few days/weeks in the market should prove quite interesting. A real study in human conviction, emotion, and possibly fear. (Or maybe the market will just quiet down and go up 10 points a day. WRONG!)"



From March 2003

http://contraryinvestor.com/2003archive/momar03.htm

http://contraryinvestor.com/2003archive/momar03.htm


"Fear Factors...There is absolutely no question that significant equity bear markets bottom in the height of investor fear. Fear that is often irrational. Fear that is often an emotional mirror image of the lack of logical thinking that helps drive the euphoria seen at equity bull market tops...

Where've You Been? We've Looked For You Forever And A Day...For long time readers of CI, you know we've been looking for a collapse in consumer confidence at some point during the current cycle. It's happened during every economic and significant equity market troughing experience of the last four decades at least..."