Reply #3: Pakistan-US-India triangle

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Pakistan-US-India triangle



Saturday, November 10, 2007
Ishtiaq Ahmed

Two major events have impacted profoundly on the balance of power in South Asia: the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the terrorist attacks on the United States in 2001. The balance of power in South Asia comprised primarily two rival states, India and Pakistan. India enjoyed the advantages of size -- population, territory and economy -- but after the nuclear blasts by both of them in May 1998, Pakistan could to a large extent neutralise that advantage by evolving the notion of a credible nuclear deterrent.

However, with India and the United States drawing closer to each other, with or without the controversial Nuclear Deal, Pakistan will have to reassess its defence strategy. While the India-Pakistan relationship remains a constant bad the relations between India and the United States and between Pakistan and the United States have changed dramatically. How this change in the triangle will affect the Pakistan-India relationship needs to be probed.

Although logically China should worry the Indian defence planners more than Pakistan, most of India's actual armed encounters have taken place with the latter. On the other hand, Pakistan's defence planning has always been based on the assumption that the main threat to its security comes from India. During the 1960s Pakistan worked out an understanding with PR China to offset the Indian preponderance in numbers.

Both states clashed over Kashmir in 1948 and then fought two wars in 1965 and 1971. These wars were fought in the background of an ongoing arms race between them. On 11 and 13 May 1998 India detonated altogether five nuclear devices. Pakistan followed suit a few days later with a series of six test explosions on 28 and 30 May. In May 1999, both sides fought a limited war at Kargil, which many feared could end in a nuclear confrontation. The confrontational approach came to a head when on December 13, 2001 some terrorists tried to enter the Indian Parliament to capture the legislators inside. India responded by sending a million soldiers to the international border with Pakistan and Pakistan order its own troops to it.

All-out war became a very grave possibility at that juncture, but international diplomacy with the US in the lead resulted in a climb down. Since then efforts to facilitate a dialogue between the two adversaries and persuade them to reach a negotiated settlement of their disputes has been supported by many international actors. The peace process has been moving forward slowly since then. Although there is reason for optimism it would be wrong to assert that relations between these two South Asian rivals have become normal...>

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