Reply #66: The Big Question... Where does Emily Make Landfall? Mexico? Texas?

[althecat]

I have been looking at the long range GFS forecasts for a few days... they seem to have Emily cross the Yucatan peninsula and then hang around off the Mexico coast for a few days strengthening before making a dash for the Mexico border... with the most recent run showing a south of the border landfall of a significant hurricane on July 21st.



I note however that these forecasts have been gradually moving Emily back to the north over the past few days. If this pattern continues then anywhere from Texas to LA is potentially vulnerable.

It is notable that the long range forecasts now have Emily making a Gulf Coast landfall...