Reply #216: Stop Attacking Each Other

[RaulGroom]

Attack me. I see a lot of people urging caution, others decrying the heinousness of these crimes. There is no reason for such people to fight.

There is good reason, however, for the people who believe that this happened to attack someone who says what I am about to say. So I respectfully ask that DoveTurnedHawk and others direct their vitriol toward me, who deserves it.

This probably did not happen.

This is not to say there may not be some abuse at the bottom of all this. It certainly would not be the first time charges like these sprung up in a case where actual abuse occurred.

That said, there are a lot of red flags here.

First of all, the police are doing their jobs. If this guy walked into a police station and started confessing to horrible crimes, it's their job to investigate and to go after the people he says are his accomplices.

However, from the perspective of someone who has spent a lot of time studying abuse cases, both real and imaginary abuse, this has too many characteristics of the imaginary ones and not enough characteristics of real ones.

Here's the first red flag - child sex abuse cases that are initiated based on something other than a victim's complaint often spin out of control before a good framework is established for what may have really happened. Such cases are truly tragic because in cases where there clearly was some abuse, it becomes impossible to hold the perpetrators to account because in court the prosecution has to prove its case, not just that "something happened." I have a feeling that may be happening here.

Thus those of you who are swallowing the whole story, without skepticism, should take a step back and realize that you may well be contributing to a phenomenon that will make it less likely, not more likely, that the abusers will face justice. This may help you understand, DTH, why someone like me who has no affinity for bullies of any kind, least of all child molesters, feels the need to urge caution in such a case.

I will tell you, based on intuition and on my knowledge of cases with a lot of similarities to this one, that the central figure in all of this is probably guilty of abusing children. At the very least he is seriously mentally unbalanced, and therefore could have done practically anything.

Everyone else caught up in the case is probably (not definitely, but probably) completely innocent. They have been arrested properly, having been accused of a heinous crime. They will probably all be acquitted, hopefully except for the central figure. But again, the greater the buildup of hysteria, the greater the likelihood that the real crimes underneath the hysteria may go unpunished.

The discussion on this thread is, as a poster noted, not very constructive (though I have to say it's nowhere near the nastiest DU thread I've seen.) Thus I won't be returning to defend this post in any way.

I will say, though, that in three months we will probably know a lot more about this case. I will post a thread in GD apologizing if the need arises, and requesting an apology if I feel I am owed one.

Have at it.