Reply #30: Did you know?

[54anickel]

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=39962

Did you know that from its 1973 high to its 1974 low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 45%? But it is what came afterwards that could be helpful in assessing the stock market's current prospects.
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Does the 1965-1982 Secular Bear Market Have Anything to Teach Us About the Current One?

Commencing months ago -- many analysts have decided that instead of experiencing a cyclical bull inside a secular bear, we are now involved in a new secular bull market. Maybe, maybe not -- but I personally believe the secular bear is still with us, will be with us for a considerable time yet, and it is about to reassert itself, if it has not already done so. In this regard, let's go back to a point in yesteryear to see if it might not provide some guidance.

The Last Secular Bear (1965-1982)

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As always, the market will do what it will do, and it will be actual as well as perceived fundamentals that make it do it. I will continue to analyze and write about them.

But those considerations were not the force driving this article. Instead, using an example from a past situation with similarities to the current one, I wanted to illustrate that just because the stock market has risen a good deal over a meaningful period by no means assures us that the long-term bear market -- the secular bear -- is over. All that may have occurred was a period intersection between the long-term negative trend and a shorter-term positive one.

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