What made Mubarak Change his mind? Was it contrived to have the people cheer military rule?

[tahrir]

I'm sure TPTB feel much more secure with that prospect, considering how much we have invested in the military vs the alternative, a peoples democracy.

Any theories out there?

[MineralMan]

1. I suspect that Mubarack "changed his mind" on the

"suggestion" from the military leaders. The military made the decision to not stand in the way of the protesters early on, and Mubarack's decision not to step down was a direct slap in the face of the military, which had made its own decision with regard to the protest.

So, I imagine he was told to step down by the very same military, who were apparently done with Mubarack. When the military no longer backs a de facto dictator, that dictator is finished, since the military is generally what is shoring up the government. This is especially true in Egypt.

So, Mubarack is done. Now, the question is whether the military will actually follow through with their stated plans to let the people form a democratic government. I'm not optimistic about that end of things. Historically, military "interim" governments don't often do that. What is more likely, as history shows, is that a new puppet government will be put in place, under the guise of an election. A few minor things will change to pacify the bulk of the population, and things will go on pretty much as before. That's the historical view, anyhow.

I hope that isn't what happens there, and I'll be overjoyed if it's not what happens in Egypt.

Mubarack is finished. What's next is very much up in the air.

[tahrir]

2. that doesn't add up, why didn't it work the day before?

or the week before, for that matter, but the very next day it works?

it seems like a set up to me.

there were a number of clues that TPTB knew this was coming e.g.


Egypt stock market to reopen on February 13
2/9/2011

http://www.ameinfo.com/256074.html

And, from a psychological perspective, it makes a lot of sense, to set expectations on Thur. of a man determined to stay, to get emotions stirred up, and then the next day the knight in shining armour rides in to save the day... and the people CHEER.

very, clever, imho.

[MineralMan]

3. The goal was to appease the crowd of protesters.

They did it incrementally, searching for the minimum steps that would get the crowd off the square. The one that worked was Mubarack stepping down, but they tried lesser steps first. Had the crowd been satisfied with less, it would have stopped sooner.

Now, the protesters are cleaning up the square and going home. What happens next is anyone's guess, but the process was carefully thought through by the military. They found the turning point, and took it. Don't be deceived into thinking that this means a fair, just democracy for Egypt. It might, but history militates against that outcome. Military rule is not a common stepping stone to democracy. It has happened, but very infrequently.

The next step will likely be for the military leadership to throw some bones to the people of Egypt and try to put a fresh puppet government in place. If the Egyptian people fall for that ruse, things will go back more or less to the way they were. If it doesn't work, mere crowds in the square will not work a second time, most likely, and the military will empty the square one way or another.

On the other hand, I hope that I'm just being pessimistic here, and that the military leadership will see that the real answer is to establish a democratic system. I hope that's what happens.

[dionysus]

5. too much prune juice this morning man....

;)

[pampango]

7. The day before, he told the crowd that he wasn't going anywhere and they should go home.

That turned out to be his last bit of bravado. One of the PBS commentators last night said that, without specific knowledge of how it played out, once morning dawned and the crowds in the square were not only not disheartened but larger than ever, the military essentially told Mubarak that his time was up. The guy standing behind the vice president as he read Mubarak's resignation announcement was a military PR guy there to make sure things went according to plan.

If the crowd had accommodated Mubarak and gone home when he told them to (not likely to happen but dictators live in a world where everyone does what they tell them to), he would probably still be there. The next day when everyone realized that Mubarak was a "dictator" whom no one listened to, his time was up.

[tahrir]

9. I think everyone knew exactly how that speech would go over, considering they had been there weeks

i think the way it was played out was contrived to have the people welcome military rule.

i think it was theatre, at it's best.

however, that was the only scenario where TPTB get what they want, and making the people think they got what they wanted.

[Motown_Johnny]

4. it took 18 days to pack all the plunder

[Trekologer]

6. Guys with guns told him it was time to go

If he was willingly stepping down, I would have expected the message to come from him, on state TV, explaining that he was doing it for the good of Egypt or something like that.

[NNN0LHI]

8. Had to rush our people in there before he resigned

I know one guy from town here. He claims to be a Nissan executive but he always drives any brand but Nissan. He always reminded me of the father from Meet The Fockers minus the cat. No Jinxy.

He went to Egypt(He asked me to watch his house), about two weeks before the protests began. Came home the day before they began. He is gone again but he didn't say where he was going or for how long this time.

Don

[Raschel]

10. Money. When it became apparent the protest wasn't going to end, other leader$/companie$

pressured him and gave him the heave ho. The economy was taking a big hit.

[OHdem10]

11. Mubaraks hold on power was. If I step down the country will descend

into chaos. Remember when Unions called strikes
and joined the Protesters. The Farmers came in
from the fields so to speak and joined the protesters.
The Poor descended into Cairo.

The Military showed Mubarak he had lost control and
with the whole country standing against him he had to
go.

Added: In one story, it seems the Military had though
he was going to give an elegant stepping down speech
and instead he gave that defiant speech. The Military
knew the country could not be sustained with every group
in the country coming out to support the protestors.
The rest is history.

[CJCRANE]

12. There needs to be some kind of functioning institution left in place.

Remember what happened in Iraq after the invasion?

The neocons disbanded the Iraqi army and police force and all hell broke loose.

[tahrir]

13. Egypt: Israel, Saudi Arabia say they welcome developments‎ - CNN (blog)

http://www.google.com/url?url=http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/12/throngs-of-people-still-celebrating-mubaraks-ouster/&rct=j&sa=X&ei=5dpWTZyXA8-p8AauqJSvBw&ved=0CHUQ-AsoADAF&q=egypt&usg=AFQjCNEDWpDuazdTjrf9MKcDS-EkL8T1KQ

BTW: I didn't say they should have been disbanded, but I am simply pointing out that putting the military in charge has nothing to do with democracy, but everything to do with maintaining the status quo.

and the reactions from TPTB, indicate that they are pleased with the way things have turned out.

[CJCRANE]

14. But what's the alternative at this stage?

[tahrir]

15. a constitutional commission made up of respected civilians from the opposition

[tahrir]

16. Army and protesters disagree over Egypt's path to democracy (plans outlined)

guardian.co.uk, Saturday 12 February 2011 17.14 GMT

Activists reject army appeal to leave Tahrir Square as new leadership resists pressure to hand power to civilian administration

...

A group of the activists issued what they called the "People's Communique No 1" – mirroring the titles of military communiques – listing demands.

The included the immediate dissolution of Mubarak's cabinet and "suspension of the parliament elected in a rigged poll late last year".

The reformists want a transitional administration appointed with four civilians and one military official to prepare for elections in nine months and to oversee the drafting of a new constitution.

more...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/12/egypt-military-leaders-fall-out-protesters