Can smart folks answer me these two questions?

[SeeHopeWin]

It is amazing with the ALL the coverage on Tee Vee, nobody is talking about these two questions:

1) Will the levees hold up knowing what we know about this storm? How high will the lake rise? How much surge will come in? how much rain will we get?

My bottom line question is: will the same neighborhood which flooded last time be flooded this time? Didn't anyone run the numbers on this stuff?

2) What is the political impact here knowing that the RNC party has been disrupted? Will they miss out on putting on a good show? will this distract from their ability to articulate the message? If McCain and Palin go south to where the storm is, will it be viewed as a positive or as pandering? How does all of this impact the Obama campaign?

I have watched hours and hours of TV in the last 24 hours, seems like no MSM is getting into the issues here...

[aikoaiko]

1. I think the Army Corp of Engineers already answered your question with a ....

.... :shrug:.

[ddeclue]

7. Which Icons?

Personally, the icons I would use are:

:scared:
:banghead:
:hide:

[ddeclue]

2. Answers...

It all depends on storm track but likely New Orleans is going to be wiped off the map. The levies are good for 8-10 feet of storm surge at best in their current condition. They are expecting 24 feet if the track holds.

The political ramifications are harder to gauge.

Doug D.
Orlando,FL

[SeeHopeWin]

3. 24 feet from the ocean surge? serious?

[ddeclue]

4. Yup for a CAT4 storm...

[frogcycle]

13. from weather.com

[Wilber_Stool]

16. Look at that sucker.

Big enough to cover Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama. Great googlie mooglies.

[frogcycle]

10. 24 feet is in ocean

Pontchartrain is only 25 feet deep at its deepest point. So the physics suggests the surge there will be less. But if the eye goes right over the lake, and moves slowly, so plenty of ocean has time to get sucked into the lake, then it will pretty damned huge - plenty big enough to top the levees, cause breaches, and then the lake will fill the city regardless of surge.

[MercutioATC]

14. Updated forecast (as of 1:00pm EST) - storm surge of 9-12 feet

for most of the Parishes.

[thunder rising]

5. Don't know if I'm "smart folks"

the levees are the reason for a lot of finger crossing today. The repairs have not been completed. So who knows. If they take a direct hit probably not, if the hurricane misses probably be OK.

The Republicans are using Gustav as an excuse for presenting a non-event. Nobody cared enough to show up and the hurricane gave them a reason to justify it.

[fishnfla]

6. nola.com has some of the info you need

for numbers 1

[rosesaylavee]

8. Looked at

weather.com this am. There is a possibility that the eye of the storm will break to the west of NOLA. There are better flood walls in place there and less population. So, there is some hope that this won't be the horrible disaster we all fear it will be.

NOLA is only slightly more prepared this time than last. More people have left and were moved out of the area than last time.

And as for the RNC... pardon my french, but f*ck them. They didn't care about NOLA last time and they sure as hell don't care this time.

The MSM will report what they are paid to report and won't say one thing negative about their employers so no use watching them for news.

[frogcycle]

11. surge comes both from low pressure and from wind

if the eye breaks to the west, then the greatest winds, moving in the worst possible direction, will sweep across Pontchartrain directly at the city.

[fishnfla]

15. a western landfall is worse

the "hard shoulder" of the storm is the northeast quadrant, and that quadrant is expecting the highest surge. The MRGO canal levees that broke last time, lake ponchatrain, the lower delta parishes, the west bank, the lower wards are gonna be affected. Katrina hit to the east. The theory is that the old areas and other newer areas are gonna get hit plus the eyewall areas to the west

the storm has weakened some and become less organized. here's hopin

[tannybogus]

9. Both questions are subject to many variables.

The levee question may be the easier one to answer. However, you will still be dealing in probability.
These storms are weird to the max. You can run the numbers on any number of models. I don't know when high tide is or
if its a spring or neap tide. Don't want to know. I would say as a guess:
levees - what levees?
Lake rise- Enough to flood a whole hell of a lot
Surge - It will be way high! After a certain point, you get to way high.
Rain - Noah comes to mind. Except it won't be 40 days and nights
Neighborhoods - the topology didn't change. It is going to fill it up from the lowest on. Unless the levees really work, SSDD.
As far as the second question, who knows. I know what I want to happen. However, just because I can say what I want doesn't mean I can will what I want.
The MSM never know Jacks. If you don't know Jack, you can't ask about him.
:hi: :yoiks:

[justiceischeap]

12. "will the same neighborhood which flooded last time be flooded this time?"

That neighborhood is gone. So one can look at it like this: Those homes won't be destroyed again. However, if the levees fail, which is likely—as I recall after Katrina there was a lot of talk about how the levees were only built to handle a Cat 2/3 storm and they didn't hold with Katrina, then there will be more widespread flooding just as there was after they failed during Katrina.

As far as the Repugs? Even if they were handed a script on how to handle a possible disaster of this magnitude, they'd still get it wrong. Hell, they haven't gotten it right from Katrina. Things are STILL a mess down there. Maybe Palin will throw a fur coat around some poor child and think that will make it all better.