http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=299376The current surge in the price of oil is certainly not driven by a conviction that oil supplies have peaked and can only decline from now on. The dealers in the London and New York exchanges who make the market react to the daily flow of news — a possible Turkish invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan, two North Sea rigs closed for a week because of bad weather — and don’t bother much about longer term issues like peak oil.
The market is a simple-minded beast: Supply is tight and disruptions are possible, so the price goes up. But the market is so tight because demand has been growing faster than supply for years, mainly due to the economic boom in Asia — and now the fear is that supplies may have stopped growing altogether. The German-based Energy Watch Group declared last month that global oil output peaked in 2006 at 81 million barrels per day. It will fall to 58 million b/d by 2020, they predict, and to only 39 million b/d by 2030.
That would give us just over twenty years to cut our use of oil by half — or rather by two-thirds, really, since world demand for oil is set to increase 37 percent by 2030, according to the annual report of the US Energy Department’s forecasting arm, the Energy Information Administration. In theory, two decades ought to be enough to come up with more efficient engines and other conservation measures for the half of all oil that is used in transport, and to switch to alternative fuels for much of the rest. But there are many who doubt that we will succeed.
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Nick Lampson at the step it up meeting talked about that we had 10 years We are scrambling
and reality is Keeping the military machine going on oil and gas is going bye bye