RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Once again, we show how implausible the rBr hypothesis is
using simple binomial probabilities.
How to read the tables:
Each Case assumes 1000 respondents and a given response rate.
For example, look at Case 1:
It assumes a 53% response rate
For the scenario where Kerry wins the exit poll by 52-48%, the
probability that Bush would win 479 (54%) of the 887 who
refused to be interviewed is .02% (1 in 5000).
Response Rate Table
Response rate 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0%
Responders 1000 1000 1000 1000
Refusers 1000 961 923 887
Total 2000 1961 1923 1887
CASE I
Response rate
53% Bush Percent of Refusers
Refusers 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%
887 444 452 461 470 479 488
Scenario:
Kerry% Bush% Probability
56% 44% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
55% 45% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
54% 46% 0.85% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
53% 47% 3.68% 0.83% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
52% 48% 11.66% 3.62% 0.82% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
51% 49% 27.56% 11.50% 3.56% 0.80% 0.16% 0.02%
50% 50% 50.00% 27.28% 11.34% 3.49% 0.94% 0.16%
CASE II
Response rate
52% Bush Percent of Refusers
Refusers 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%
923 461 471 480 489 498 508
Scenario:
Kerry% Bush% Probability
56% 44% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
55% 45% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
54% 46% 0.74% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
53% 47% 3.40% 0.78% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
52% 48% 11.20% 3.53% 0.68% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
51% 49% 27.16% 11.50% 3.15% 0.71% 0.12% 0.01%
50% 50% 50.00% 27.68% 10.55% 3.26% 0.74% 0.12%
CASE III
Response rate
51% Bush Percent of Refusers
Refusers 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%
961 480 490 500 509 519 528
Scenario:
Kerry% Bush% Probability
56% 44% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
55% 45% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
54% 46% 0.59% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
53% 47% 2.91% 0.56% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
52% 48% 10.16% 2.76% 0.62% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
51% 49% 25.71% 9.72% 3.01% 0.58% 0.09% 0.01%
50% 50% 50.00% 24.90% 10.41% 2.84% 0.65% 0.09%