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Edited on Fri May-13-05 09:38 PM by TruthIsAll
First they said that Kerry was leading the early exit polls because women came out in force.
Well, at the 8349 respondent timeline (at 4pm), the split was 58% female-42% male.
And Kerry had 53% of the female vote. Kerry was leading 51-48%.
At the 11027 timeline (7:33pm), the split was 54% female-46% male. And Kerry had 54% of the female vote. Kerry was leading 51-48%.
At the 13047 timeline, the split was 54% female-46% male. And Kerry had 54% of the female vote. Kerry won 51-48%.
At the 13660 timeline(1:25pm) the split was 54% female-46% male. But Kerry had just 51% of the female vote. Since they had to match the vote, Bush won 51-48%. So much for the female vote canard. They never used that one again.
Then they said it rained in Ohio. But Democrats get wet also. And it didn’t rain EVERYWHERE in the country. So they did away with that one, also.
Then came the famous Reluctant Bush Responder Hypothesis (rBr). USCV debunked it. And so did DU. At the 13047 timeline, the How Voted in 2000 split was Bush 41%/ Kerry 39%. Not quite an rBr ratio. And Kerry won what should have been the Final National Exit poll by 51-48%.
So 660 respondents were found overnight, added to the pristine 13047 (which should have been the final).
Then we showed them the impossible 43% / 37% split at the 13660 final exit poll. How could the weights change from 41 / 39%? So they said it was the Bush Bandwagon effect, giving up on the rBr theory.
But this could not fly, because E-M hypothesized rBr and they had to stick to it.
Then we showed that the 43% Bush 2000 voter weight was impossible; that it could be no higher than 39.8% since only 48.7mm Bush voters from 2000 were still alive to vote in 2004. That meant that Bush’s vote was inflated by at least 3mm – and Kerry’s too low by the same amount.
We showed that even if 100% of Bush 2000 voters (48.7mm) turned out and only 85% of Gore voters (43.3mm), that Kerry would have won anyway. The reason: Kerry won 55-60% of new voters.
Eight million fewer Gore voters meant that there had to be an equal number of New voters, since the total number of 2004 voters was a constant 122 million. And we have already shown that the maximum Bush 2000 voter turnout was 48.7mm.
They could not, or would not, accept this mathematical fact. So they said that of the 43% who said they voted for Bush, some actually voted for Gore - but FORGOT THEY DID SO AND SAID THEY VOTED FOR BUSH.
In other words, aBr - the Alzeimer Bush Responder.
Now, that finally explains it.
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