AT A GLANCE: ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE

[TruthIsAll]

For respondents 1 to 13047 it was Kerry, 51-48
For respondents 13048-13660 it was all RBR.

				National Exit Poll Timeline					
	4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm
	8349	11027	13047	13660		8349	11027	13047	13660
		Category Weighting	       Kerry percentage		

GENDER
Male 	42	46	46	46		47	47	47	44
Female 	58	54	54	54		53	54	54	51

EDUCATION
No H.S.	4	4	4	4		50	52	52	50
H.S. 	22	22	22	22		50	51	51	47
College30	31	31	32		48	47	47	46
ColGrad	26	26	26	26		48	49	48	46
PostG 	18	17	17	16		58	58	58	55

RACE/GENDER
WM	33	36	36	36		40	41	41	37
WF	44	41	41	41		47	47	47	44
NWM	10	10	10	10		69	70	69	67
NWF	13	13	13	13		77	77	77	75

AGE
18-29 	15	17	17	17		56	56	56	54
30-44 	27	27	27	29		48	49	49	46
45-59 	31	30	30	30		52	51	51	48
60+	27	26	26	24		48	48	48	46

INCOME
0-$15K 	9	9	9	8		68	66	66	63
15-30 	15	15	15	15		59	59	59	57
30-50 	22	22	22	22		53	52	52	50
50-75 	22	23	23	23		46	45	45	43
75-100 	14	13	13	14		49	49	49	45
-150   11	11	11	11		44	45	45	42
-200	4	4	4	4		45	47	47	42
-200+	3	3	3	3		40	41	41	35

IDEOLOGY
Lib 	22	22	22	21		86	87	86	85
Mod 	46	45	45	45		58	57	57	54
Con 	33	33	33	34		16	16	16	15

RELIGION
Prot	53	53	53	53		43	43	43	40
Cath 	27	27	27	27		50	50	50	47
Jewish	3	3	3	3		77	77	77	74
Other 	7	7	7	7		76	75	75	74
None 	10	10	10	10		69	70	70	67

IN MILITARY
Yes	18	18	18	18		43	43	43	41
No	82	82	82	82		52	53	53	50

WHEN DECIDED 
Today 	4	6	6	5		52	54	53	52
3Days 	3	3	3	4		50	54	53	55
Week 	2	2	2	2		48	48	48	48
Month 	8	10	10	10		61	61	60	54
Before 	67	79	79	79		50	50	50	46

REGION
East	23	22	22	22		58	58	58	56
Midwest	25	26	26	26		50	50	50	48
South	31	31	31	32		44	45	45	42
West	21	21	21	20		53	53	53	50

PARTY ID
Dem 	39	38	38	37		90	90	90	89
Rep 	36	36	35	37		7	7	7	6
Ind	25	26	27	26		52	52	52	49

VOTED IN 2000 FOR
NoVote	15	17	17	17		62	59	57	54
Gore	39	38	39	37		91	91	91	90
Bush	42	41	41	43		9	9	10	9
Other	4	4	3	3		61	65	71	71
									
									
									
									
									
									

[bleever]

1. OMG! I figured it out! Of course the last 613 people "added" to the

exit polls seemed reluctant:

They weren't even asked.

They were just scooped out of the * column and added to the true sample.

Involuntarily.

I call them: Ghost Pollees.

[TruthIsAll]

2. View ANY change in the numbers btween 12:22am and 1:25pm (final)

as a MAJOR grain of salt in the wounds.

[TruthIsAll]

3. SUMMARY PERCENTAGES AND VOTES

										
				NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS						
										
		2-Nov		2-Nov		3-Nov			3-Nov	
Time		4:00pm		7:33pm		12:22am			1:25pm	
Respondents	8349		11027		13047			13660	

Kerry precentages
Votes in millions										


CATEGORY     Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote
GENDER    50.48	61.72	50.78	62.08	50.78	62.08 47.78 58.42
REGION    50.61	61.88	50.84	62.16	50.84	62.16 8.24  58.98
PARTYID 	50.62	61.89	50.24	61.42	50.69	61.97	47.89	58.55
IDEOLOGY	50.30	61.50	50.07	61.22	49.85	60.95	47.25	57.77
VOTED 2000	51.01	62.36	50.90	62.23	51.41	62.85	48.48	59.27
DECIDED   51.18	62.57	51.42	62.87	51.23	62.63 47.50	58.07
EDUCATION	50.32	61.52	50.34	61.55	50.21	61.39	47.82	58.46
RACE		50.79	62.10	51.04	62.40	50.94	62.28	47.81	58.45
AGE		50.44	61.67	50.53	61.78	50.53	61.78	47.96	58.64
INCOME	  51.45	62.90	51.01	62.36	51.01 62.36 48.13	58.84
RELIGION	50.82	62.13	50.85	62.17	50.85	62.17	47.99	58.67
MILITARY	50.38	61.59	51.20	62.60	51.20	62.60	48.38	59.15

AVERAGE		50.70	61.99	50.77	62.07	50.80	62.10	47.94	58.61


										



				KERRY NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE DETAIL						
										
		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm
		8349	11027	13047	13660		8349	11027	13047	13660
										
			Category Weighting			Kerry Percentage		
GENDER										
Male 		42	46	46	46		47	47	47	44
Female 		58	54	54	54		53	54	54	51
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.48	50.78	50.78	47.78
VOTE (mm)						61.72	62.08	62.08	58.42
										
REGION										
East		23	22	22	22		58	58	58	56
Midwest		25	26	26	26		50	50	50	48
South		31	31	31	32		44	45	45	42
West		21	21	21	20		53	53	53	50
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.61	50.84	50.84	48.24
VOTE (mm)						61.88	62.16	62.16	58.98
										
PARTY ID										
Democrat 	39	38	38	37		90	90	90	89
Republican 	36	36	35	37		7	7	7	6
Independent	25	26	27	26		52	52	52	49
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.62	50.24	50.69	47.89
VOTE (mm)						61.89	61.42	61.97	58.55

IDEOLOGY										
Liberal 	22	22	22	21		86	87	86	85
Moderate 	45	45	45	45		58	57	57	54
Conservative	33	33	33	34		16	16	16	15
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.3	50.07	49.85	47.25
VOTE (mm)						61.50	61.22	60.95	57.77
										
VOTED IN 2000										
NoVote	        15	17	17	17		62	59	57	54
Gore		39	38	39	37		91	91	91	90
Bush		42	41	41	43		9	9	10	9
Other		4	4	3	3		61	65	71	71
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.01	50.9	51.41	48.48
VOTE (mm)						62.36	62.23	62.85	59.27
										
WHEN DECIDED										
Today 	        6	6	6	5		52	54	53	52
Last3Days 	3	3	3	4		50	54	53	55
Last Week 	2	2	2	2		48	48	48	48
Last Month 	10	10	10	10		61	61	60	54
Before 	        79	79	79	79		50	50	50	46
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.18	51.42	51.23	47.5
VOTE (mm)						62.57	62.87	62.63	58.07
										
EDUCATION										
NoHS		4	4	4	4		50	52	52	50
H.S. 		22	22	22	22		50	51	51	47
College 	30	31	31	32		48	47	47	46
Grad		26	26	26	26		48	49	48	46
PostGrad 	18	17	17	16		58	58	58	55
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.32	50.34	50.21	47.82
VOTE (mm)						61.52	61.55	61.39	58.46
										
RACE										
WM		33	36	36	36		40	41	41	37
WF		44	41	41	41		47	47	47	44
NWM		10	10	10	10		69	70	69	67
NWF		13	13	13	13		77	77	77	75
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.79	51.04	50.94	47.81
VOTE (mm)						62.10	62.40	62.28	58.45
										
AGE										
18-29 	        15	17	17	17		56	56	56	54
30-44 	        27	27	27	29		48	49	49	46
45-59 	        31	30	30	30		52	51	51	48
60+		27	26	26	24		48	48	48	46
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.44	50.53	50.53	47.96
VOTE (mm)						61.67	61.78	61.78	58.64
										
INCOME										
0-$15K 	         9	9	9	8		68	66	66	63
$15-30 	        15	15	15	15		59	59	59	57
$30-50 	        22	22	22	22		53	52	52	50
$50-75 	        22	23	23	23		46	45	45	43
$75-100 	14	13	13	14		49	49	49	45
$100-150 	11	11	11	11		44	45	45	42
$150-200 	4	4	4	4		45	47	47	42
$200+ 	        3	3	3	3		40	41	41	35
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.45	51.01	51.01	48.13
VOTE (mm)						62.90	62.36	62.36	58.84

RELIGION										
Protestant	53	53	53	53		43	43	43	40
Catholic 	27	27	27	27		50	50	50	47
Jewish	        3	3	3	3		77	77	77	74
Other 	        7	7	7	7		76	75	75	74
None 		10	10	10	10		69	70	70	67
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.82	50.85	50.85	47.99
VOTE (mm)						62.13	62.17	62.17	58.67
										
MILITARY										
InMilitary	18	18	18	18		43	43	43	41
NoMilitary	82	82	82	82		52	53	53	50
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.38	51.2	51.2	48.38
VOTE (mm)						61.59	62.60	62.60	59.15
										

										
										
										

[TruthIsAll]

4. ALIGN THE SUMMARY STATS

		
		NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS						
		
	2-Nov		2-Nov		3-Nov		3-Nov
      4:00pm		7:33pm		12:22am	       1:25pm

Respondents
	8349		11027		13047		13660	

Kerry precentages
Votes in millions						

CATEGORY    Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote

GENDER    50.48	61.72	50.78	62.08	50.78	62.08   47.78   58.42
REGION    50.61	61.88	50.84	62.16	50.84	62.16   48.24   58.98
PARTYID   50.62	61.89	50.24	61.42	50.69	61.97	47.89	58.55
IDEOLOGY  50.30	61.50	50.07	61.22	49.85	60.95	47.25	57.77
VOTED2000 51.01	62.36	50.90	62.23	51.41	62.85	48.48	59.27

DECIDED   51.18	62.57	51.42	62.87	51.23	62.63   47.50	58.07
EDUCATION 50.32	61.52	50.34	61.55	50.21	61.39	47.82	58.46
RACE	  50.79	62.10	51.04	62.40	50.94	62.28	47.81	58.45
AGE	  50.44	61.67	50.53	61.78	50.53	61.78	47.96	58.64
INCOME	  51.45	62.90	51.01	62.36	51.01   62.36   48.13	58.84

RELIGION  50.82	62.13	50.85	62.17	50.85	62.17	47.99	58.67
MILITARY  50.38	61.59	51.20	62.60	51.20	62.60	48.38	59.15

AVERAGE	  50.70	61.99	50.77	62.07	50.80	62.10	47.94	58.61

[TruthIsAll]

5. NATIONAL EXIT POLL PROBABILITIES

	NATIONAL EXIT POLL PROBABILITIES 
	KERRY POLL DEVIATION TO 48.28% VOTE						
							
	11/2/2004	11/2/2004	11/3/2004	11/3/2004
	3:59pm		7:33pm		12:22am		1:25pm
Respon	8349		11027		13047		13660
							
MoE	1.07%		0.93%		0.86%		0.84%
StDev	0.55%		0.48%		0.44%		0.43%
Kerry%	50.70%		50.77%		50.80%		47.94%

Prob	0.000487%	0.000008%	0.00000043%	94.05%
1 in	205,180		11,781,646	233,712,012	1

Prob = 1-NORMDIST(Kerry%,0.4828,StDev,TRUE)							

[TruthIsAll]

7. Trying to fix the alignment. Its hard work.

		
	NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS		

Kerry percentages
Votes in millions						
		
		
2-Nov		2-Nov		3-Nov		3-Nov
4:00pm	      7:33pm	      12:22am      1:25pm
8349		11027		13047		13660	
  Pct   Vote   Pct  Vote   Pct   Vote    Pct	 Vote

GENDER 
  50.48  61.72 50.78  62.08  50.78  62.08  47.78  58.42

REGION
  50.61  61.88 50.84  62.16  50.84  62.16  48.24  58.98

PARTYID
  50.62  61.89 50.24  61.42  50.69  61.97  47.89  58.55

IDEOLOGY
  50.30  61.50 50.07  61.22  49.85  60.95  47.25  57.77

VOTED2000
  51.01  62.36 50.90  62.23  51.41  62.85  48.48  59.27

DECIDED
  51.18  62.57 51.42  62.87  51.23  62.63  47.50  58.07

EDUCATION
  50.32  61.52 50.34  61.55  50.21  61.39  47.82  58.46

RACE
  50.79  62.10 51.04  62.40  50.94  62.28  47.81  58.45

AGE
  50.44  61.67 50.53  61.78  50.53  61.78  47.96  58.64

INCOME
  51.45  62.90 51.01  62.36  51.01  62.36  48.13  58.84

RELIGION
 50.82  62.13 50.85  62.17  50.85  62.17  47.99  58.67

MILITARY
  50.38  61.59 51.20  62.60  51.20  62.60  48.38  59.15

AVERAGE
  50.70  61.99 50.77  62.07  50.80  62.10  47.94  58.61

[Sancho]

8. I don't see an E-M explanation of this! ....

and they can simply look at the sheets of the last 600 or so and give us the profile of those imaginary folks...

What is the E-M connection to the Republicans?

[TruthIsAll]

9. And I'm still waiting also...

/

[LightningFlash]

11. Look at tommy's latest thread....

Mitofsky is the shill for the increasingly controversial Voter News Service......An organization that owns "corporate news", the folks who told CNN to also change their numbers during 2002. Go back to the 2002 Georgia elections, and 1991 New Hampshire races to find more.

[Pacifist Patriot]

6. I love you, you know...BUT

Dammit numbers make my head hurt. I open your posts and start to palpitate like I did for a high school math test. i.e. not in a good way.

[kster]

10. KICK.NT