http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=5667SNIP
"Once again, I would remind readers of another oddity besetting these troubling exit polls: On November 2, 2004, pollsters did not restrict inquiries to the votes cast on that date. They also asked voters about the 2000 election. 43% of the respondents said they had chosen Bush on that previous occasion, while 37% reported having cast a ballot for Al Gore".
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Bella Ciao, you neglected to mention the most important fact of all...
The hell with the RBR!
THE 43% for Bush is IMPOSSIBLE!
THE 43% NUMBER WAS FABRICATED TO AGREE WITH THE VOTE COUNT!
43% of the 122.26 million who voted in 2004 is 52.57 million.
BUT BUSH GOT ONLY 50.456 MILLION VOTES IN 2000!
THAT'S A DIFFERENCE OF 2.11 MILLION.
THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED IN THE FINAL EXIT POLL BY 2.11 MILLION VOTES.
BUT WE KNOW THAT APPROXIMATELY 3.5% OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS DIED (1.77 MILLION) BEFORE ELECTION 2004.
THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 1.77 + 2.11= 3.88 MILLION VOTES.
BUT THAT ASSUMES 100% of BUSH 2000 VOTERS CAME TO THE POLLS IN 2004.
WE KNOW THAT AT LEAST SOME STAYED HOME AND DID NOT VOTE.
HOW MANY? WHO KNOWS?
LET'S ASSUME IT'S 1% OF 50.456 MILLION = 504,560 VOTES FOR THE HELL OF IT..,
ADD THE .50 MILLION TO THE 3.88 MILLION AND THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 4.38 MILLION VOTES.
SO THE BUSH VOTE = 62.03 - 4.38 =57.65 MILLION
ASSUME THEY ALL WENT TO KERRY.
SO THE FINAL KERRY VOTE MUST BE:
59.03+ 4.38 = 63.41 MILLION VOTES
THAT LEAVES 1.20 MILLION FOR NADER ET AL.
NOW 63.41/122.26 = 51.86% FOR KERRY
AND 57.65/122.26 = 47.15% FOR BUSH
AND 1.20/122.26 = 0.98% FOR NADER ET AL
BUT WAIT.
WE ARE NOT DONE YET.
WANT MORE OF THIS?
HOW MANY BUSH 2000 VOTERS DECIDED TO VOTE FOR KERRY THIS TIME?
OH, FORGET IT.