More numbers too make you ill...
Best case scenario:
Preliminary exit poll (11027)
Kerry wins new voters by 59-39%
Bush and Gore 2000 voters ALL turnout:
Kerry Margin of victory:
7.29 million votes
Worst case scenario:
Final exit poll (13066)
Kerry wins new voters by 54-45%
100% Bush Voter turnout
88.6% Gore 2000 Voter turnout:
Kerry Margin of victory:
870,000 votes
KERRY NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY
For 120 New Voter and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout Scenarios
(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)
Assumed Prel. Prel. Final
Turnout 7:38pm 12:22am 2:05pm
Bush 11027 13047 13660
100%
KERRY WINNING MARGIN IN MILLIONS OF VOTES
Turnout KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS
Case GORE 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54%
1 100% 7.29 6.86 6.44 6.02 5.59 5.17
2 99.4% 7.09 6.66 6.23 5.80 5.37 4.94
3 98.8% 6.89 6.46 6.02 5.59 5.15 4.72
4 98.2% 6.70 6.26 5.82 5.37 4.93 4.49
5 97.6% 6.50 6.06 5.61 5.16 4.71 4.26
6 97.0% 6.31 5.85 5.40 4.95 4.49 4.04
7 96.4% 6.11 5.65 5.19 4.73 4.27 3.81
8 95.8% 5.92 5.45 4.98 4.52 4.05 3.59
9 95.2% 5.72 5.25 4.78 4.30 3.83 3.36
10 94.6% 5.53 5.05 4.57 4.09 3.61 3.13
11 94.0% 5.33 4.85 4.36 3.88 3.39 2.91
12 93.4% 5.13 4.64 4.15 3.66 3.17 2.68
13 92.8% 4.94 4.44 3.95 3.45 2.95 2.46
14 92.2% 4.74 4.24 3.74 3.23 2.73 2.23
15 91.6% 4.55 4.04 3.53 3.02 2.51 2.00
16 91.0% 4.35 3.84 3.32 2.81 2.29 1.78
17 90.4% 4.16 3.63 3.11 2.59 2.07 1.55
18 89.8% 3.96 3.43 2.91 2.38 1.85 1.32
19 89.2% 3.76 3.23 2.70 2.16 1.63 1.10
20 88.6% 3.57 3.03 2.49 1.95 1.41 0.87