National Exit Poll Time Line
Preliminary 1: Nov. 2, 7:58pm, 11027 respondents
Preliminary 2: Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 ""
Final 3: Nov. 3, 2:04pm, 13660 ""
There was NO CHANGE IN THE AVERAGE OF THE WEIGHTED NATIONAL
PERCENTAGES after 2020 additional respondents were interviewed
between 7:58pm and 12:22am.
Time Sample Bush Kerry Nader
7:58pm 11027 47.91% 50.76% 1.14%
12:22am 13047 47.90% 50.76% 1.00%
But look what happens between 12:22am and 2:04pm (after just
613 additional respondents):
2:04pm 13660 50.89% 48.04% 0.30%
Kerry gained in the Party ID split between 7:58pm and 12:22am,
going from 38 Dem/36 Rep/26 Independent to 38 Dem/35 Rep/27
Independent (2020 respondents). The effect of this slight
change was to increase his national weighted average from
50.24% to 50.69%.
Time Sample Bush Kerry Nader
7:58pm 11027 48.24% 50.24% 1.26%
12:22am 13047 47.77% 50.69% 0.92%
But the next day, the Party ID weights mysteriously changed to
37/37/26 when the final 613 respondents were sampled - quite a
feat.
2:04pm 13660 49.69% 49.15% 0.27%
Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Here's the progression of the exit poll tranformation from
Kerry to Bush, from left to right, literally and figuratively.
From an initial 11,027 on CNN to a pristine 13,047 on WP to a
soiled 13660 on CNN.
CNN 7:58pm 11027 Sample WP 12:22am 13047 Sample CNN 2:04pm 13660 Sample
Mix1 Bush Kerry Nader Mix2 Bush Kerry Nader Mix3 Bush Kerry Nader
GENDER
Male 46.0% 51% 47% 1% 46% 52% 47% 1% 46% 55% 44% 0
Female 54.0% 45% 54% 1% 54% 45% 54% 1% 54% 48% 51% 0
100% 47.76% 50.78% 1.00% 100% 48.22% 50.78% 1.00% 100% 51.22% 47.78% 0.00%
EDUCATION
Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No H.S. 4.0% 47% 52% 1% 4% 47% 52% 1% 4% 49% 50% 0
HSGrad22.0% 48% 51% 1% 22% 48% 51% 1% 22% 52% 47% 0
Colleg31.0% 51% 47% 2% 31% 51% 47% 1% 32% 54% 46% 0
ColGrd 26.0% 50.5% 48.5% 1% 26% 50% 48% 1% 26% 52% 46% 1%
Postg 17.0% 40% 58% 2% 17% 40% 58% 2% 16% 44% 55% 1%
100% 48.18% 50.34% 1.48% 100% 48.05% 50.21% 1.17% 100% 51.24% 47.82% 0.42%
RACE AND
GENDER Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
WMale 36.0% 58% 41% 1% 36% 58% 41% 1% 36% 62% 37% 0%
WFem 41.0% 52% 47% 1% 41% 52% 47% 1% 41% 55% 44% 0%
NonWM 10.0% 29% 70% 1% 10% 28% 69% 1% 10% 30% 67% 1%
NonWF 13.0% 22% 77% 1% 13% 22% 77% 1% 12% 24% 75% 1%
100% 47.96% 51.04% 1.00% 100% 47.86% 50.94% 1.00% 99% 50.75% 47.06% 0.22%
AGE Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
18-29 17.0% 43% 56% 1% 17% 43% 56% 1% 17% 45% 54% 0
30-44 27.0% 50% 49% 1% 27% 50% 49% 1% 29% 53% 46% 1%
45-59 30.0% 47% 51% 2% 30% 47% 51% 1% 30% 51% 48% 0
60+ 26.0% 51% 48% 1% 26% 51% 48% 1% 24% 54% 46% 0
100% 48.17% 50.53% 1.30% 100% 48.17% 50.53% 1.00% 100% 51.28% 47.96% 0.29%
INCOME Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
0-$15K 9.0% 33% 66% 1% 9% 33% 66% 1% 8% 36% 63% 0
$15-30 15.0% 39% 59% 2% 15% 39% 59% 1% 15% 42% 57% 0
$30-50 22.0% 47% 52% 1% 22% 47% 52% 1% 22% 49% 50% 0
50-75 23.0% 53% 45% 2% 23% 53% 45% 1% 23% 56% 43% 0
-100 13.0% 50% 49% 1% 13% 50% 49% 0% 14% 55% 45% 0
-150 11.0% 53% 45% 2% 11% 53% 45% 2% 11% 57% 42% 1%
-200 4.0% 53% 47% 0 4% 53% 47% 0% 4% 58% 42% 0
200+ 4.0% 58% 41% 1% 4% 58% 41% 1% 3% 63% 35% 0
101% 48.12% 51.42% 1.46% 101% 48.12% 51.42% 0.95% 100% 51.02% 48.13% 0.11%
IDEOLOGYMix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Lib 22.0% 12% 87% 1% 22% 12% 86% 1% 21% 13% 85% 1%
Mod 45.0% 42% 57% 1% 45% 41% 57% 1% 45% 45% 54% 0
Con 33.0% 82% 16% 1% 33% 82% 16% 1% 34% 84% 15% 0
100% 48.60% 50.07% 1.00% 100% 48.15% 49.85% 1.00% 100% 50.83% 47.95% 0.22%
RELIGIONMix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Prot 53.0% 56% 43% 1% 53% 56% 43% 1% 53% 59% 40% 0
Cath 27.0% 49% 50% 1% 27% 49% 50% 1% 27% 52% 47% 0
Jewish 3.0% 23% 77% 0 3% 23% 77% 0% 3% 25% 74% 0
Other 7.0% 20% 75% 5% 7% 20% 75% 4% 7% 23% 74% 1%
None 10.0% 29% 70% 1% 10% 29% 70% 1% 10% 31% 67% 1%
100% 47.90% 50.85% 1.25% 100% 47.90% 50.85% 1.18% 100% 50.77% 47.99% 0.17%
MILITARYMix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Yes 18.0% 55% 43% 2% 18% 55% 43% 1% 18% 57% 41% 1%
No 82.0% 46% 53% 1% 82% 46% 53% 1% 82% 49% 50% 1%
100% 47.62% 51.20% 1.18% 100% 47.62% 51.20% 1.00% 100% 50.44% 48.38% 1.00%
WHEN
DECIDED Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Today 6.0% 41% 54% 5% 6% 40% 53% 5% 5% 45% 52% 1%
3Days 3.0% 42% 54% 4% 3% 41% 53% 4% 4% 42% 55% 1%
Week 2.0% 51% 48% 1% 2% 51% 48% 1% 2% 51% 48% 0
Month 10.0% 38% 61% 1% 10% 38% 60% 1% 10% 44% 54% 1%
Before79.0% 50% 50% 0% 79% 50% 50% 0% 79% 53% 46% 0%
100% 48.04% 51.42% 0.54% 100% 47.95% 51.23% 0.54% 100% 51.22% 47.50% 0.19%
REGIONMix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
East 22.0% 40% 58% 1% 22% 41% 58% 1% 22% 43% 56% 1%
Midwest 25.0% 49% 50% 1% 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 51% 48% 0
South 31.0% 54% 45% 1% 31% 54% 44% 1% 32% 58% 42% 0
West 21.0% 45% 53% 1% 21% 45% 53% 1% 20% 49% 50% 1%
99% 47.24% 50.34% 0.99% 100% 47.95% 50.53% 1.00% 100% 51.08% 48.24% 0.42%
PARTY
ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38.0% 9% 90% 1% 38% 9% 90% 1% 37% 11% 89% 0
Rep 36.0% 92% 7% 1% 35% 92% 7% 0% 37% 93% 6% 0
Ind 26.0% 45% 52% 2% 27% 45% 52% 2% 26% 48% 49% 1%
100% 48.24% 50.24% 1.26% 100% 47.77% 50.69% 0.92% 100% 49.69% 49.15% 0.27%
VOTED IN
2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17.0% 39% 59% 1% 17% 39% 59% 1% 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 38.0% 8% 91% 1% 38% 8% 91% 1% 37% 10% 90% 0%
Bush 41.0% 90% 9% 0% 41% 90% 9% 0% 43% 91% 9% 0%
Other 4.0% 13% 65% 16% 4% 13% 65% 16% 3% 21% 71% 3%
100% 47.09% 50.90% 1.19% 100% 47.09% 50.90% 1.19% 100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.26%
Exit Poll Comparison Summary
Poll Bush Kerry Nader
Gender
11027 47.76% 50.78% 1.00%
13047 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
13660 51.22% 47.78% 0.00%
Education
11027 48.18% 50.34% 1.48%
13047 48.05% 50.21% 1.17%
13660 51.24% 47.82% 0.42%
Race/Gender
11027 47.96% 51.04% 1.00%
13047 47.86% 50.94% 1.00%
13660 50.75% 47.06% 0.22%
Age
11027 48.17% 50.53% 1.30%
13047 48.17% 50.53% 1.00%
13660 51.28% 47.96% 0.29%
Income
11027 48.12% 51.42% 1.46%
13047 48.12% 51.42% 0.95%
13660 51.02% 48.13% 0.11%
Ideology
11027 48.60% 50.07% 1.00%
13047 48.15% 49.85% 1.00%
13660 50.83% 47.95% 0.22%
Religion
11027 47.90% 50.85% 1.25%
13047 47.90% 50.85% 1.18%
13660 50.77% 47.99% 0.17%
Military
11027 47.62% 51.20% 1.18%
13047 47.62% 51.20% 1.00%
13660 50.44% 48.38% 1.00%
When Decided
11027 48.04% 51.42% 0.54%
13047 47.95% 51.23% 0.54%
13660 51.22% 47.50% 0.19%
Region
11027 47.24% 50.34% 0.99%
13047 47.95% 50.53% 1.00%
13660 51.08% 48.24% 0.42%
Party ID
11027 48.24% 50.24% 1.26%
13047 47.77% 50.69% 0.92%
13660 49.69% 49.15% 0.27%
Voted in 2000
11027 47.09% 50.90% 1.19%
13047 47.09% 50.90% 1.19%
13660 51.11% 48.48% 0.26%
Average
11027 47.91% 50.76% 1.14%
13047 47.90% 50.76% 1.00%
13660 50.89% 48.04% 0.30%